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 Âûïóñê 109
- Fedyanin D., Chkhartishvili A. Generalized multiple information structure
A new model for describing agents' awareness is proposed that generalizes the known reflexion models in the following sense: the proposed model of generalized multiple awareness structures (GMAS) allows for different numbers of participants in agents' perceptions of the situation. Such structures are used to construct information control and can be used to control the dynamics of opinions in social networks and to improve safety in transportation systems even when agents do not know the total number of agents in the system, which is very common in real life but rarely considered in game theory and epistemic logic. In the article, a formal description of probabilistic and interval GMAS is given, and cases of their transformation as a result of observing the choice of actions by agents and as a result of receiving a message by them are considered. Formal definitions of information equilibrium for both types of GMAS are proposed, and the information equilibrium for probabilistic GMAS is formulated in such a way that it allows us to find Bayes –Nash equilibria.
- Shumov V. The law of effecting targets and the function of victory in fight (battle, operations)
Having taken the law of target defeat of A. N. Kolmogorov as a basis and using the methods of probability theory, the transition from the models of application of individual and group weapons to the aggregated model of combat (battle, operation) is carried out. The victory function is one of the varieties of conflict functions, satisfies the axioms of S. Skaperdas and belongs to the class of models based on the relationship between the potentials of the parties. The scale parameter of the victory function is estimated according to the data of military statistics and substantively. It is shown that the uncertainties of the outcome of combat operations are significantly reduced when moving from the tactical level to the operational level, and from the operational level to the strategic level. The concept of a combat unit, which is basic in the theory of combat potentials, has been clarified. The justified victory function allows to analyze multi-scale combat actions from a unified position and is designed to solve the following problems: firstly, the assessment of combat capabilities of the parties in the preparation of combat actions, secondly, justification of the main elements of the commander's (commander's) plan for combat actions (determination of the directions of the main strike and concentration of the main forces as a result of solving game-theoretic problems), thirdly, justification of the composition and appearance of prospective combat formations.
- Selezneva A., Neretin E. Functional adaptive automatic control system for a multi-environment vehicle
This article presents the results of a research of the possibility of using a digital functionally adaptive automatic control system with a reference model synthesized by the method of component-by-component control formation, for the pitch channel of an unmanned vehicle, assuming movement in two environments (water and air). The objects dynamic parameters can vary over a wide range of values. Presents the results of modeling the operation of the digital and the analog functionally adaptive automatic control systems in the flight against the influence of external influences, such as a gust of stormy wind, under various control influence, as well as the results the operation of the system when the object moves along a given trajectory are present. A key feature of the application of a functionally adaptive automatic control system is its ability to adapt to new conditions without the need to change system settings. The principle of operation of the adaptation circuit is based on the calculation of the control action from the mismatch between the signals taken from the sensors and signals of the reference model. The integration of such a system will reduce the cost of modernization and implementation of new control systems.
- Mozaidze E., Zuev S. Machine monitoring of text chats and detection of anomalies
The aim of the work is to develop a new method for detecting anomalies in text chats that does not use text corpora. Tasks: a brief presentation of the statistical description of the recurrence of anomalies developed in the authors' previous works, the introduction of the method of paired (generalized) N-grams, the synthesis of these methods into a new method for detecting anomalies in short message exchange systems, the method testing. A new method for detecting anomalies in the flow of text messages is proposed, which does not use a corpus of texts for learning, and, in addition, allows online learning. The material for the work was chats, groups and channels in Telegram, to which one of the authors of the work is subscribed. The volume of text material was about 50 MB, which corresponds to about 2 million words collected over 5 years. The method uses a statistical distribution of the repetition of anomalous events, as well as a method of thematic modeling based on the statistics of noun-verb pairs. Both methods were proposed earlier in the authors' works. The experiment showed that the results predicted by the proposed method correspond to the actually registered anomalies. The application of the proposed method can be useful in research and analysis of the appearance of anomalies in complex social systems, the interaction in which is reflected in communications through social networks and messengers. Such tasks are relevant both for government agencies and for business, and can help to smooth out acute social and industrial problems. The proposed method is seemed especially useful for the journalism because it allows you to determine the time of the most likely appearance of significant social phenomena.
- Markovich N., Ryzhov M., Kulik i. Investigation of dependencies and distributions in random networks evolved by mixed models of the evolution and node deletion
The evolution of a random network by models of preferential, clustering and mixed attachments to form links between newly appending nodes and existing nodes is studied. Strategies of node deletion at each step of network evolution are considered: 1) without node and edge deletion;~2) deletion the least influential node among the most 'old', where the node's PageRank is used as a measure of the node's influence;~3) deletion a node with a probability inversely proportional to the node degree. For these deletion strategies the dependence of two characteristics of random networks, namely, the node degrees and node triangle counts (that is, the triples of interconnected nodes in which the node is involved), and the behavior of clustering coefficients of nodes are compared by simulation. The heaviness of the distribution tails for the node degrees and the node triangle counts is estimated. The mixed clustering-preferential attachment is proposed here for the first time.
- Babikov V., Babikov O. Retail bank interest rate internal regulation
Retail bank client’s behavior investigation allows us to obtain some necessary patterns for the balanced interest rates distribution model development. In order to study the behavior of retail bank clients and for the balanced interest rates distribution model developing, two types of financial instruments were studied: current accounts, deposits. The main result of this paper is the optimal ratio of current account interest rates establishing at given interest rates on deposits (in conditions of exact future market interest rates expectations). The approach outlined in the article offers banks a convenient, versatile, and easily understandable method for elaborating an optimal strategy to manage financial instruments. Key input parameters for decision-making in interest rate setting encompass the behavioral attributes of clients and the anticipations of bank management concerning future interest rate trends. In practical application, this approach leads to substantial cost reductions for banks, potentially yielding savings of up to 10--15 \% of their current funding expenses.
- Romanenko V. Fuzzy optimization of spare parts supply system for production divisions of hub-forming airline airport network
The optimal design problem of a spare parts supply system for airports baggage handling systems is considered. It is assumed that the considered group of airports is equipped with baggage systems of one manufacturer, which plans to supply them with spare parts during the operational phase. One of the airports in the group is intended to serve as a passenger transfer hub for a hub-forming airline, which plans to organize mass transfer transportations between the airports in the group. It is proposed to create a layered system of spare parts provision, which provides for the availability of warehouses at the manufacturer's, hub airport and other (peripheral) airports, and to use a combined strategy of spare parts supplies, which implies periodic supplies from the manufacturer's warehouse to airport warehouses, prompt supplies from the hub warehouse to peripheral airport warehouses and, in case of shortage, urgent supplies to the hub airport's warehouse. The aim is to determine the volume of spare parts periodic deliveries optimal by criterion of minimum costs of production, storage and stock replenishment. Part of the initial data is not fully defined, which corresponds to the design phase of the system, and is given in the form of fuzzy numbers. The results of the model examples testify to the validity of the considered statement of the problem and the effectiveness of the proposed spare parts supply system.
- Chernov I. National security: scenario analysis of global environmental processes impact
The article deals with the analysis of the scenario technology possibilities to solve the problems of long-term scenario forecasting of geopolitical threats to Russia's national security and also to assess the severity of the consequences of the macroeconomic and financial policies implemented by Western countries in relation to our country. A scenario study of social and economic problems caused by Russia's adherence to the Washington Consensus policy at the end of the 20th and beginning of the 21st centuries was carried out. The results of the Washington Consensus basic provisions analysis, as well as of the essence and modern varieties of neoliberal economic doctrine and their negative impact on the socio-economic development of Russia are presented. A basic scenario model of the neoliberal economy and its negative impact on ensuring the state sovereignty of Russia has been developed. As a result of model research, a basic scenario for Russian economy and social sphere development under various control influences and external disturbances has been elaborated. The obtained results showed that the use of the developed scenario-forecast research technology allows for a comprehensive proactive analysis of long-term geostrategic decisions of US and its allies subservient to its interests and also, based on the developed scenarios, to assess the seriousness of the relevant threats to the national interests of the Russian Federation and its sovereignty.
- Kondrashkin G., Bolotnov A., Shkatov M. Researsh of stellar navigation system errors in the problem of the true course determining by solar sensor data
The necessity of providing secure movement for mobile vehicles requires applying high precision reliable navigation complex. Nowadays one of the actual problem is how to increase the precision of course determining device for navigation complexes works during a long time, in a special case on board of nautical objects. Methods of course determining by using inertial systems are widely spread, but because of restraints cased by technological limits of inertial sensors manufacturing the periodical aiding of inertial system with data from another source is needed to provide high precision of navigation complexes works during a long time. The highest accuracy for course determining inertial system correction provides astronomical methods. There are various astronomical sensors designed for observing the celestial objects with different characteristics. This article is devoted to the problems of using modern solar sensors for correcting course values, determined by inertial sensors, as a parts of astroinertial navigation system. The theoretical conditions which bases the method of object course determining by Sun observing are considered. The mathematical models of astroinertial system sensors measurements and mathematical expressions which used for course calculation are formulated. The conditions and results of the experiment which executed for qualitative estimation of accuracy achieved by using the prototype of astroinertial system for determine the course by Sun observations are presented. The concise information about the construction of the prototype used for experiment execution is noted.
- Pavlov B., Karshakov E., Goldin D. Determination of the parameters of the magnetic field of an object from the results of remote magnetogradient measurements
The problem of determining the parameters of an object's magnetic field from the results of remote magnetogradient measurements is considered. The task is set to determine the magnetic parameters of an object based on a description of its influence on the measuring system as a magnetic dipole vector. A key feature of the proposed approach is the use of differences between spaced sensors directly, rather than as an estimate of the corresponding spatial derivatives. The problem of determining the magnetic parameters of an object using a tensor meter, built on the differences between field components, and a vector meter, built on the differences in field modules, has been solved. The proposed algorithms are implemented in the software of a computer simulation model, which makes it possible to simulate the process of determining the magnetic parameters of an object using stationary and mobile magnetogradient measuring systems built using scalar and vector magnetically sensitive sensors of various types, as well as various gradient installation designs.
- Chirkin M., Ivanenko J., Serebryakov A., Mishin V., Molchanov A. Sensitivity of digital processing method for laser gyroscope primary signals to input perturbations
The mathematical model for laser gyroscope primary signals that includes coupling between counter-propagating optical waves, mechanical rotation of laser gyroscope body and additive noise is formed. The sensitivity of the method to calculate the instantaneous Sagnac phase with compensation for dynamic lock-in to input perturbations is studied on the basis of laser gyroscope having the harmonic dither unnoised. To analyze the method to calculate the instantaneous Sagnac phase with compensation for dynamic lock-in, the results obtained are compared with the angular rate being the analytical solution of differential equation for laser gyroscope with zero lock-in zone. Phase errors between a test signal and a reference signal of angular rotation rate of laser gyroscope are recorded. The effect of quasi-white noise, changes in primary signal amplitudes and phase shift between quadrature signals and the signal being the alternating component of power signal sum is determined on the registered counts of angular rotation rate of laser gyroscope body.
- Toutov A., Farhadov M., Taratukhin A., Kerimov S. Architecture of a distributed software and hardware complex resource scheduler of infocommunication system of cloud data center
With the development of cloud technologies, the development of methods and algorithms for a resource scheduler for cloud data centers is an urgent task, as evidenced by the continuous flow of works devoted to this topic. The criteria for the best allocation of resources can be different, such as energy efficiency, fulfillment of service level agreements, reliability and others. Based on the analyzed works, models, methods and algorithms for resource distribution were selected and developed, the complex of which forms the basis of the distributed resource scheduler architecture proposed in this article for an infocommunication system of a cloud data center based on multi-criteria optimization of its characteristics and features of live migration of virtual machines. The effectiveness of the models and methods used has been confirmed by simulation modeling and makes it possible to reduce energy consumption when meeting quality of service indicators.
- Tikhmenev N., Nazarov S., Ushanov A., Sinelnikov A. Stydy of the ring laser gyroscope functioning on vibration influences
Theoretical analysis and experimental study of the ring laser gyroscope functioning under vibration influences was carried out in this work. The purpose of the study is to improve the technical, economic and operational characteristics, which consist in reducing the dithered ring laser gyroscope to external mechanical influences. The work provides a review of the key characteristics, design and technological solutions for constructing the most common models of ring laser gyroscopes and inertial navigation systems. Dynamic calculations of the device design have been carried out. The mechanical system functioning of the ring laser gyroscope under vibration influences was studied using finite element analysis methods. The external mechanical influence of the dithered ring laser gyroscope on output signal was studied experimentally. It is shown that errors in measuring angular velocity arise in the frequency range of the structure’s own resonances. Agreement between the results of calculating the intrinsic resonances of an often dithered ring laser gyroscope and experimental data has been obtained. This research will allow us to develop a methodology for designing the dithered ring laser gyroscope structure and life support systems based on the study of errors arising from external mechanical influences.
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